We are students of the business cycle — the most powerful force in market-oriented economies. Unlike mainstream economists whose forecasts are based on backward-looking econometric models, ECRI has developed a robust leading indicator approach which is unrivaled in making accurate calls of turning points in economic growth and inflation worldwide.
The ECRI Approach
To capture the complex dynamics of the global economy, ECRI focuses on the interrelationships among cycles in inflation, employment, and economic growth. The indicators we monitor signal cyclical turns before they happen, and well before the consensus. Our focus is on identifying when those changes in direction will occur. ECRI is also able to monitor the transmission of cycles within and among geographical regions, major sectors of each economy, and specific industries.
Our History
A century-long tradition of business cycle research gives ECRI a singular perspective on the ebb and flow of the economy. Our approach builds on the work of ECRI's co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, and his mentors. Our track record reflects the major strides we have made since the mid-1990s, following the development of a critical mass of leading indicator systems, resulting in a breakthrough in understanding and monitoring global cyclical contagion.
Our Track Record
Our track record of making turning point calls is unrivaled. For decades we have consistently called recessions and recoveries – without any false alarms – while the consensus was still looking the other way. To view a timeline showing highlights of our calls, visit the non-mobile version of our site at