Podcast: the “Late Cycle” Myth & More
Macro Voices | May 31, 2019

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcomed ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan to MacroVoices. Erik and Lakshman discuss the following:

Interview starts at 17:00 minute mark.

    • Are we actually in late cycle dynamics?
    • Concept of late cycle: what is the cycle and how does the cycle work
    • Business cycle vs. Inflation cycle
    • Using cyclical indicators to monitor where we are in the cycle
    • Growth rate cycle downturns and recoveries
    • Correlation between growth rate downturn and risks of recession
    • 3 P’s: Pronounced, Pervasive and Persistent decline in the growth rate
    • What the leading indicators show when the cycle is ending
    • Length of expansion vs. the severity of recession
    • Characteristics of business cycle, credit cycle and inflation cycle
    • Changes in productivity growth is needed to attain higher trend growth
    • Recession serves a purpose in a free market economy

1. Minsky Chartbook: [Click Here]

2. Mauldin Chartbook: [Click Here]

3. Supplemental Chartbook: [Click Here]

4. Perspective Chartbook: [Click Here]