ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
NEWS & EVENTS
What would Lee Iacocca do?
Real Vision TV | Sep 15, 2021
 

Following supply chain disruptions, major consulting firms are recommending that companies should become more tactically agile in general, and more nimble with respect to supply chain management in particular.

We have a different perspective.

While organizational agility can be valuable when there are unexpected disruptions, meaning true Black Swan events, developing that capability comes with significant costs.

Still, companies are routinely blindsided by cyclical changes in the direction of growth that are not Black Swan events, yet business leaders often create a narrative that they really couldn’t have been foreseen. Recall John Chambers at Cisco following the Dot-Com bust saying that “the brightest people didn’t see this coming.” While we don’t claim to be the brightest, ECRI did see it coming, in real time, because it was cyclical.

Read why longer leads are critical.
     
An example of someone who understood the ramifications of a cycle turn is Lee Iococca. Following Chrysler’s near-death experience, he told his Chief Economist, Don Hilty, “Just let me know six months before the next recession.”

This is one way our corporate clients work with us – given a few months' advance notice, they have time to act proactively, rather than scrambling to catch up: this is a simpler, superior and lower-cost solution to the problem of being repeatedly blindsided by cyclical turns.

Review ECRI's current real-time track record.

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