ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
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Who was Geoffrey H. Moore?
ECRI | Dec 7, 2012

Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, Moore decided all those dates on the NBER's behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee's senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 21 other countries that are widely accepted by academics and major central banks as the definitive international business cycle chronologies. These chronologies have always been publicly available.

In the 1960s, Moore, whom The Wall Street Journal called “the father of leading indicators,” gave his original Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) to the U.S. government. The state-of-art successor to the LEI is ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (WLI).

Moore was Director of Research of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which he joined in 1939, and of which he remained Director Emeritus. From 1969 to 1973, he was the U.S. Commissioner of Labor Statistics.

In 1979, after his retirement from the NBER, he set up the Center for International Business Cycle Research at Columbia University.

Moore, who represented the second generation of business cycle researchers, was mentored by Wesley C. Mitchell, who helped establish the NBER, and Arthur F. Burns, both of whom represented the first generation of business cycle researchers. In 1996 he founded the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) in New York, where he continued to direct research into business cycles. Also in 1996, the American Economic Association named him Distinguished Fellow, its highest honor.